Apr 302011

Speculation that Gilles Duceppe wants to leave Ottawa politics for Quebec City has been scotched by the news that the Parti Quebecois under Pauline Marois has solid control of the separatiste vote in Quebec, said pollster Glenn Robbins.

“She has 93 percent voter approval,” Robbins told RKR.

In a free-wheeling analysis of the federal election on Tuesday night’s RoadKill Radio broadcast, Robbins and co-hosts Kari Simpson and Ron Gray agreed that the NDP surge owed more to the Tories’ and Liberals’ heavy reliance on attack ads than to any rise in popularity of NDP policies, which most Canadians still recognize as economically ruinous.

Ekos Research has forecast 100 seats for the NDP; Robbins’ estimate is less than half that. Apart from Thomas Mulcair in Outremont, Robbins said, the NDP lacks the organization on the ground to capitalize on their surge in the polls.

“There’s a change in the air,” said Kari Simpson. “I think people are taking their duty as citizens more seriously. Government has become so intrusive… I think there’s going to be a good turnout at the polls.”

Kari Simpson’s forecast: “Harper’s going to get a squeaker of a majority. The people are going to give everyone a political spanking… that we had to have another election. The Layton rise is fun…”

Ron Gray’s forecast: “Conservatives 128 seats; Liberals 120; NDP 50; BQ 30—another Tory minority, and more of the same.”

Click here for Robbins SCE Research Polls

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